Gooood Mooorning 2012 ! We meet again, BH readers!

How is 2012 starting? As usual, with political hints and wishful thinking. It’s not the first time I am writing about Mr. Sebastian Lazaroiu, former presidential adviser, former Labor Minister (he had a rather miniature mandate…), former strategist for the ruling party and president Traian Basescu – although pretended being an independent.

Well, Lazaroiu could not refrain from stating the new year with an interview meant to stir up the political life right from the very first days. He granted an interview to RFI, telling us about his preoccupations. Lazaroiu believes the revision of the constitution will not be completed this year, as two thirds of votes in parliament are needed (and general elections are right behind the corner, I would add).

Furthermore, Lazaroiu is confident the Social Liberal Union (USL) – the main opposition alliance – will continue to fall down in opinion polls, much below the needed 50 per cent.

As I was saying, I constantly read Mr. Lazaroiu’s public thoughts. Last time I said about him he is a wishful thinker. I was right, partially. Now, as we notice – according to the latest opinion polls – that USL is slowly going down in the electorates’ references, I am tempted to say he is right.
However, I have doubts. Sebastian Lazaroiu is going even further, anticipating USL will break before the November elections and that the ruling PDL, together with the social-democrats (PSD), member of USL, and current ruling companions UNPR are to form the next government. That’s sheer wishful thinking!

It is possible that USL might break into pieces, i.e. PSD, PNL (the liberals) and PC (the conservatives). But it is hard to believe that the ruling PDL, quoted lately at less that 20 per cent of votes would be able to win the elections anyway. That is why Lazaroiu hints at an impossible PDL-PSD alliance (we’ve already seen where such an alliance could lead to during January-September 2009). Furthermore, a broken USL does not mean that the parties could not cooperate. By the way, it is rather probable PSD would win some 30-32 per cent of votes, PNL maybe some 20, while PDL could get 18-22 per cent. What now? President Traian Basescu would have no choice but to appoint a prime-minister representing the party with most votes. I believe any of the opposition parties would go along with an ‘unreliable friend’ – such as a former partner within USL – than with a ‘reliable enemy’ such as the current ruling partner PDL.

I’d think twice if I were in the opposition’s shoes.

Mr. Lazaroiu’s doubts are related only to the pace at which USL will go down in opinion polls.

My only doubts are related to Mr. Lazaroiu’s sense of anticipation. And good sense. Mr. Lazaroiu’s real target is ‘poisoning’ the relations between the USL parties. He does that bit by bit, constantly suggesting a split as the elections are getting nearer. Is he to succeed?

Maxy